NCSU model predicts active hurricane season

Last year’s relatively mild hurricane season probably won’t be repeated in 2007, according to researchers at NC State.

According to Dr. Lian Xie, professor at NC State, and graduate student Elinor Keith, the outlook for 2007 is for an active season, with the possibility of 12-14 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean.

Of those named storms, 8-9 may become hurricanes, 4-5 of which have the potential to become major (Category 3 or higher) storms.

The Gulf of Mexico is most likely to see storm activity this year, as Xie’s research indicates a higher-than-average probability of 2-3 hurricanes forming in the Gulf Basin, with 1-2 likely to make landfall.
Closer to home, the southeastern coast of the U.S. may see between 1-3 named storms, with 1-2 hurricanes making landfall.

Last year, NC State’s was the only national model to accurately forecast Atlantic hurricane activity, predicting 5-6 hurricanes. Five hurricanes actually formed.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

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